Replaying Tuesday 29 September 2026

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Renovara puts a competent NEM analyst inside Claude or ChatGPT. It reads AEMO’s five-minute data, knows where the traps are and shows its working — for the quick question before the morning meeting, and the one the board will read.

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5-minute: AEMO dispatch data, back to 2019
66 s: median time to an answer
5 min: to connect Claude or ChatGPT

11:00 AEST · Tue 29 Sep 2026

Replay · AEMO data

Spot price, $/MWh

QLDQueensland $59.40/MWh 4,948 MW demand
NSWNew South Wales $59.30/MWh 5,051 MW demand
VICVictoria −$37.30/MWh 3,410 MW demand
SASouth Australia −$35.50/MWh 564 MW demand
TASTasmania −$38.05/MWh 950 MW demand

11:00 · Analyst note

Rooftop solar is running South Australia

South Australia’s operational demand — what the grid itself has to supply — falls to 530 MW. Rooftop solar is covering 76% of the state’s underlying demand from behind the meter. The price bottoms out at −⁠$44.39/MWh at 12:20.

00:00
Victoria’s link north is full
Victoria is sending about 1,000 MW to New South Wales — the limit AEMO has set for the link. With the line full, Victoria’s surplus stays home: its price sits near $0/MWh while New South Wales pays about $70.
07:00
The south goes below zero
As the sun comes up, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania all fall below $0/MWh — and stay there until late afternoon. Tasmania imports around 400 MW over Basslink the whole day.
11:00
Rooftop solar is running South Australia
South Australia’s operational demand — what the grid itself has to supply — falls to 530 MW. Rooftop solar is covering 76% of the state’s underlying demand from behind the meter. The price bottoms out at −⁠$44.39/MWh at 12:20.
13:30
New South Wales exports both ways
Midday solar pulls New South Wales down to −⁠$1.20/MWh. It sends up to 725 MW north to Queensland and about 280 MW south into Victoria.
18:30
The evening ramp
The sun sets and New South Wales demand climbs to 8,868 MW, the day’s high. Prices climb back to about $85/MWh, and Victoria switches back to exporting north.
20:00
Back to the overnight pattern
The Victoria–New South Wales link fills again, at about 990 MW against a 1,000 MW limit, and Victoria settles back at $0/MWh. Over the day Victoria averaged −⁠$7.77/MWh, and South Australia was negative in 157 of 288 five-minute intervals.

Every number on this map is AEMO data for 29 September 2026 — five-minute prices and demand, hourly interconnector flows — queried through Renovara.

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Day to day

Business critical

East coast gas

Why was Victoria's price negative for most of yesterday?

Working

Read the NEM analyst guide
Checked 1 table schema Interconnector flows
Ran 5 queries: prices, demand, interconnector flows, rooftop solar SELECT INTERCONNECTORID AS ic, hour(SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES) AS h, ROUND(AVG(METEREDMWFLOW),0) AS flow, ROUND(AVG(EXPORTLIMIT),0) AS exp_lim, ROUND(AVG(IMPORTLIMIT),0) AS imp_limFROM external_data.nemweb.silver_dispatchis_reports_dispatch_interconnectorresWHERE SETTLEMENTDATE > '2026-09-29 00:00:00' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2026-09-30 00:00:00' AND INTERVENTION = 0GROUP BY 1,2 ORDER BY 1,2

Live data · 29 September 2026

Victoria averaged −$7.77/MWh across 29 September, and 156 of its 288 five-minute prices were below zero. There were two causes, at two different times of day.

Overnight the link north was full. Victoria–New South Wales flow ran at its export limit, about 1,000 MW, through the early hours. Victoria's surplus had nowhere to go, so its price sat at $0 while New South Wales paid $64–78.
Through the middle of the day it was rooftop solar. At its peak it met 55% of Victoria's underlying demand; operational demand fell to 3,128 MW and the price reached −$45.

Spot price by half hour, $/MWh, AEST. Shaded: Victoria below zero.

Which fuel set the clearing price in Q2 2026, and what was it, compared with a year ago?

Working

Read the NEM analyst guide
Checked 1 table schema Price setter
Read the reference notes worked examples · schema index
Ran 2 queries on AEMO's five-minute data
Checked 2 table schemas Participants and scheduled loads · Open Electricity units
Ran 3 queries on AEMO's five-minute data WITH dp AS ( SELECT SETTLEMENTDATE, REGIONID, MAX(RRP) RRP, COUNT(*) c FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_dispatchis_reports_dispatch_price WHERE INTERVENTION=0 AND ((SETTLEMENTDATE > '2025-04-01' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2025-07-01') OR (SETTLEMENTDATE > '2026-04-01' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2026-07-01')) GROUP BY 1,2),u AS ( SELECT SETTLEMENTDATE, REGIONID, UNIT, DISPATCHEDMARKET, SUM(INCREASE) inc FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_pricesetter_price_setter WHERE MARKET='Energy' AND DISPATCHEDMARKET IN ('ENOF','BDOF,GEN','BDOF,LOAD','LDOF') AND UNIT NOT LIKE '%MNSP%' AND ((SETTLEMENTDATE > '2025-04-01' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2025-07-01') OR (SETTLEMENTDATE > '2026-04-01' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2026-07-01')) GROUP BY 1,2,3,4),pick AS (SELECT * FROM u QUALIFY ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY SETTLEMENTDATE, REGIONID ORDER BY ABS(ABS(inc)-1), UNIT, DISPATCHEDMARKET)=1),o AS (SELECT unit_code, unit_fueltech_id FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_openelectricity_units QUALIFY ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY unit_code ORDER BY ingest_ts DESC)=1),j AS ( SELECT CASE WHEN dp.SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES < '2026-01-01' THEN '2025-Q2' ELSE '2026-Q2' END q, dp.RRP, pick.UNIT, CASE WHEN pick.UNIT IS NULL THEN 'none' WHEN pick.DISPATCHEDMARKET='BDOF,GEN' THEN 'battery' WHEN pick.DISPATCHEDMARKET='BDOF,LOAD' THEN 'battery_charge' WHEN o.unit_fueltech_id='coal_black' THEN 'black_coal' WHEN o.unit_fueltech_id='coal_brown' THEN 'brown_coal' WHEN o.unit_fueltech_id LIKE 'gas%' THEN 'gas' WHEN o.unit_fueltech_id IN ('hydro','pumps') THEN 'hydro' WHEN o.unit_fueltech_id='wind' THEN 'wind' …

AEMO price-setter data · Q2 2025 and Q2 2026

I've worked it out for all five regions. The biggest change is batteries: they set the price in about 17% of region-intervals in Q2 2025 and about 36% in Q2 2026, counting both charging and discharging. Over the same period, hydro, gas and black coal each set the price less often. Average prices when each fuel set the price also fell sharply. For example, hydro went from $137 to $85/MWh and battery discharging went from $477 to $106/MWh. I've worked it out for all five regions. The biggest change is batteries: they set the price in about 17% of region-intervals in Q2 2025 and about 36% in Q2 2026, counting both charging and discharging. Over the same period, hydro, gas and black coal each set the price less often. Average prices when each fuel set the price also fell sharply. For example, hydro went from $137 to $85/MWh and battery discharging went from $477 to $106/MWh.

Fuel Q2 2025 → Q2 2026, share of intervals Price set

Hydro 22% $137 to $85

Black coal 19% $113 to $75

Battery, charging 19% $78 to $59

Battery, discharging 18% $477 to $106

Wind 10% −$15 to $15

Gas 6% $171 to $152

Brown coal 4% $60 to $26

Grid solar 3% −$19 to $7

From the answer: the share of five-minute region-intervals in which each fuel set the price, and the average price it set, $/MWh. Batteries are counted charging and discharging.

How much gas did the Longford plant produce in the second quarter of each year, 2009 to 2026?

Working

Read the gas analyst guide
Checked 1 table schema Gas Bulletin Board flows and storage
Ran 2 queries on AEMO's Gas Bulletin Board data SELECT year(GasDate) yr, COUNT(DISTINCT GasDate) days, COUNT(*) n, SUM(Supply) supply_tj, SUM(Demand) demand_tj, MIN(Supply) mn, MAX(Supply) mxFROM external_data.nemweb.silver_gbb_actual_flow_storageWHERE FacilityId = 530040 AND month(GasDate) BETWEEN 4 AND 6GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1

AEMO Gas Bulletin Board · 2019 to 2026

Longford produced about 85 PJ in the second quarter of 2022. By the second quarter of 2026 that had fallen to about 47 PJ.

I used only the Longford production facility (ID 530040, at Longford Hub in Victoria). I left out the pipelines at the same hub (the Victorian Transmission System, Eastern Gas Pipeline, Tasmanian Gas Pipeline and VicHub), because they carry the same gas again and adding them would count it twice.
The data only goes back to late 2018, so 2009–2018 can't be calculated.

From the answer: Longford’s production in April–June of each year, PJ. The Gas Bulletin Board starts in September 2018.

When in the day do prices go negative in each region?

Working

Read the NEM analyst guide
Checked 1 table schema Dispatch price
Ran 2 queries on AEMO's five-minute data WITH p AS ( SELECT REGIONID, SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES AS istart, RRP FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_dispatchis_reports_dispatch_price WHERE INTERVENTION = 0 AND SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES >= TIMESTAMP'2026-04-01 00:00:00' AND SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES < TIMESTAMP'2026-07-01 00:00:00'), h AS ( SELECT REGIONID, lpad(hour(istart),2,'0') || ':' || CASE WHEN minute(istart) < 30 THEN '00' ELSE '30' END AS hh, CASE WHEN ROUND(RRP,2) <= 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END AS neg FROM p)SELECT hh, ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN REGIONID='NSW1' THEN neg END),4) AS nsw, ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN REGIONID='QLD1' THEN neg END),4) AS qld, ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN REGIONID='SA1' THEN neg END),4) AS sa, ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN REGIONID='TAS1' THEN neg END),4) AS tas, ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN REGIONID='VIC1' THEN neg END),4) AS vic, COUNT(*) AS nFROM h GROUP BY hh ORDER BY hh

AEMO five-minute data · April–June 2026

In Q2 2026, South Australia and Victoria had zero or negative prices for about a fifth to a third of the time in most half hours, overnight as well as midday. New South Wales and Queensland only went there during daylight hours, and Tasmania hardly at all.

Victoria: 23.0% of the quarter. Zero or negative in every half hour; highest around 13:30 (about 39%) and overnight (up to about 32% around 03:00–04:30).
South Australia: 22.4% of the quarter. Same shape as Victoria; highest around midday (about 38%) and 27% around 03:00–04:00.
Queensland: 9.4% of the quarter. Only between 06:30 and 16:30; peaks at about 37% at 13:30.

Victoria23% of the time

South Australia22% of the time

Queensland9% of the time

New South Wales3% of the time

Tasmania0% of the time

From the answer: the share of five-minute prices at or below $0 in each half hour of the day, April–June 2026 (AEST).

What did NEM grid-scale batteries earn each quarter for the last two years, by revenue stream?

Working

Read the NEM analyst guide
Read the reference notes schema index
Checked 5 table schemas Unit SCADA output · Dispatch price · Unit dispatch solution · Unit registration · Participants and scheduled loads
Read the reference notes worked examples
Ran 4 queries on AEMO's five-minute data WITH d AS ( SELECT DUID, DISPATCHTYPE, STATIONID, REGIONID FROM external_data.nemweb.silver___participant_registration_dudetailsummary QUALIFY ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY DUID ORDER BY START_DATE DESC, LASTCHANGED DESC) = 1),bstat AS (SELECT DISTINCT STATIONID FROM external_data.nemweb.silver___participant_registration_dudetailsummary WHERE DISPATCHTYPE = 'BIDIRECTIONAL'),p AS ( SELECT DUID, FUEL_SOURCE_PRIMARY FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_nem_participant_and_scheduled_loads QUALIFY ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY DUID ORDER BY FUEL_SOURCE_PRIMARY) = 1),bat AS ( SELECT d.DUID, d.DISPATCHTYPE, d.REGIONID FROM d LEFT JOIN p ON d.DUID = p.DUID WHERE (d.STATIONID IN (SELECT STATIONID FROM bstat) AND (d.DISPATCHTYPE = 'BIDIRECTIONAL' OR p.FUEL_SOURCE_PRIMARY IS NULL OR p.FUEL_SOURCE_PRIMARY = 'Battery Storage')) OR p.FUEL_SOURCE_PRIMARY = 'Battery Storage'),s AS ( SELECT s.SETTLEMENTDATE, s.DUID, CASE WHEN b.DISPATCHTYPE = 'LOAD' THEN -s.SCADAVALUE ELSE s.SCADAVALUE END AS mw FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_dispatch_scada_dispatch_unit_scada s …

AEMO five-minute data · Q2 2024 to Q2 2026

I've estimated the battery revenues for all nine quarters. The main drivers were an unusually strong energy quarter in Q2 2025 and a large spike in contingency frequency control ancillary services (FCAS) revenue in Q3 2025.

Net revenue of NEM grid-scale batteries by stream, $ million per quarter.

How much gas flowed to the three Queensland LNG plants on Curtis Island (APLNG, GLNG and QCLNG) each quarter from Q1 2021 to Q2 2026?

Working

Read the gas analyst guide
Read the reference notes worked examples
Checked 2 table schemas Gas Bulletin Board flows and storage · Pipeline connection-point flows
Ran 2 queries on AEMO's Gas Bulletin Board data WITH pcf AS ( SELECT concat(year(GasDate),'-Q',quarter(GasDate)) period, FacilityId, SUM(ActualQuantity) tj, COUNT(DISTINCT GasDate) d, COUNT(DISTINCT ConnectionPointId) cps FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_gbb_pipeline_connection_flow WHERE LocationId = 540030 AND FlowDirection='DELIVERY' AND Quality='OK' AND GasDate BETWEEN DATE'2021-01-01' AND DATE'2026-06-30' GROUP BY 1,2),afs AS ( SELECT concat(year(GasDate),'-Q',quarter(GasDate)) period, FacilityId, SUM(Demand) tj, COUNT(DISTINCT GasDate) d FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_gbb_actual_flow_storage WHERE LocationId = 540030 AND FacilityType='PIPE' AND GasDate BETWEEN DATE'2021-01-01' AND DATE'2026-06-30' GROUP BY 1,2)SELECT p.period, ROUND(MAX(CASE WHEN p.FacilityId=540093 THEN p.tj END)/1000,3) aplng_pj, ROUND(MAX(CASE WHEN p.FacilityId=540092 THEN p.tj END)/1000,3) glng_pj, ROUND(MAX(CASE WHEN p.FacilityId=540091 THEN p.tj END)/1000,3) qclng_pj, MIN(p.d) min_days, MAX(p.d) max_days, MAX(p.cps) max_cps, ROUND(SUM(p.tj) - SUM(a.tj),3) diff_vs_afs_tj, MIN(a.d) afs_min_daysFROM pcf p LEFT JOIN afs a ON a.period=p.period AND a.FacilityId=p.FacilityIdGROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1

AEMO Gas Bulletin Board · Q1 2021 to Q2 2026

I calculated the quarterly feed gas to each Curtis Island LNG plant (in PJ) for Q1 2021 to Q2 2026. No quarter has missing days, and two separate Gas Bulletin Board tables give the same totals.

I added up the daily delivered quantities (in TJ) within each calendar quarter and divided by 1,000 to get PJ. Quarters are based on gas days (06:00 to 06:00 AEST, Queensland time), not calendar days.
I compared every quarter with the separate pipeline-level totals table, which also reports deliveries at Curtis Island. The two agree to 0.000 TJ for every pipeline in every quarter.

From the answer: pipeline gas delivered to each LNG plant, PJ per quarter of gas days. April–June quarters in full colour with their total: 2026’s 342 PJ is the highest of them.

What was each region's average spot price, and how much of it came from price spikes?

Working

Read the NEM analyst guide
Checked 1 table schema Dispatch price
Ran 1 query on AEMO's five-minute data WITH p AS ( SELECT REGIONID, SETTLEMENTDATE, RRP, SETTLEMENTDATE - INTERVAL 5 MINUTES AS t FROM external_data.nemweb.silver_dispatchis_reports_dispatch_price WHERE INTERVENTION = 0 AND SETTLEMENTDATE > '2025-04-01' AND SETTLEMENTDATE <= '2026-07-01')SELECT REGIONID, year(t) AS yr, quarter(t) AS q, COUNT(*) AS n, COUNT(DISTINCT SETTLEMENTDATE) AS n_distinct, AVG(RRP) AS avg_rrp, AVG(LEAST(RRP, 300)) AS energy, AVG(GREATEST(RRP - 300, 0)) AS cap_return, SUM(CASE WHEN RRP > 300 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS n_aboveFROM pWHERE (year(t)=2025 AND quarter(t)=2) OR (year(t)=2026 AND quarter(t) IN (1,2))GROUP BY 1,2,3ORDER BY 2,3,1

AEMO five-minute data · Q2 2025 and Q2 2026

Q2 2025 was a volatile quarter. Cap return — the part of the price earned above $300/MWh — made up 16% to 34% of the average price, with New South Wales highest at $54/MWh.

In Q2 2026, cap return almost disappeared on the mainland except in South Australia. It was about $0.01/MWh in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The few intervals above $300 there were only just above it.
South Australia had the most price spikes in every quarter. In Q1 2026, 43% of its average price came from cap return.

Average spot price, $/MWh: the part up to $300 and the part above it. Q2 2025 faded.

Business critical

South Australia hit $20,300/MWh. What was actually running?

“Walk me through South Australia's price event on 21–22 June, half hour by half hour.”

Two spikes. $8,689/MWh in the half hour from 19:30 on 21 June, then $20,300/MWh from 07:30 on 22 June.
Gas carried the state. At the peak, gas was generating 1,717 MW against 74 MW of wind, with 112 MW of diesel on top.
It knew the traps. It read the metered output of all 69 South Australian units, moved AEMO’s end-of-interval timestamps back to the start, and counted Snapper Point and Hallett as gas — the registration list says diesel, the unit records say gas.

126 s11 tool calls2 SQL queries

GasDieselWindGrid solarImports from Victoria Demand The analyst’s half-hourly figures for South Australia, 21–22 June 2026 (AEST), from AEMO’s five-minute data.

The analyst guide

Data alone isn’t an analyst. Knowing the market is.

Connecting an AI to NEM data gets you an answer. Renovara’s analyst also reads a guide to how the market actually works before it answers. Here is one question, put to Claude twice through the same connection to AEMO’s data.

What was the volume-weighted average spot price in each NEM region, every quarter since Q3 2020?

Without the analyst guide

South Australia, January–March 2026

$151.29/MWh

Weighted by local demand

“The weight is AEMO’s operational demand for the region (TOTALDEMAND) from the Dispatch Regionsum table.”

63 s · 7 tool calls

With the analyst guide

South Australia, January–March 2026

$143.73/MWh

Weighted by regional supply, as AEMO defines it

“Each interval is weighted by its regional supply … Supply is initial supply (generation plus imports) plus the allowance for non-scheduled generation. This follows AEMO’s definition.”

37 s · 4 tool calls

Both answers are real runs of Claude Opus 5.5 through the Renovara NEM connector. The first used an earlier version of the analyst guide; the second used the more advanced guide.

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The data tax

Manual AEMO file cleaning is a tax on your expertise and time.

Answer one price-setting question by hand and the morning goes on downloading and repairing files before any analysis starts.

By hand5 h 30 min · not reproducible

Download 288 five-minute files Repair ragged headers Find the missing interval Map every unit to its fuel Merge into a 50 MB spreadsheet Answer

With Renovara66 s median · every query shown

Answered — the analysis starts here

None of those five hours was strategic analysis. It was file handling.

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You’ve just got to work. Your NEM agent has already studied the last 24 hours.

Rooftop solar is running South Australia

Victoria’s link north is full

The south goes below zero

Rooftop solar is running South Australia

New South Wales exports both ways

The evening ramp

Back to the overnight pattern

Ask it anything about the NEM.

South Australia hit $20,300/MWh. What was actually running?

Manual AEMO file cleaning is a tax on your expertise and time.

Put a NEM analyst on your team.