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Consider the interval Jan-Jun 2026.

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Renovara · Market Insights

Bagasse Cogeneration in the NEM: Market Value of Wilmar Sugar's Queensland Fleet

QLD1 wholesale market conditions for Australia's largest bagasse cogeneration portfolio · January–June 2026 with year-on-year comparison vs January–June 2025 · By Andrew Coffey, Renovara

Region: QLD1Fuel: Bagasse (biomass)Data: AEMO NEMWEB via RenovaraTimes: AEST

Avg QLD1 price · H1 2026

$66.25/MWh

▼ 37.2% vs H1 2025 ($105.42)

Revenue potential per MW · H1 2026

$287.8k

▼ 37.2% vs $457.9k (H1 2025)

Negative-price intervals · H1 2026

7.9%

▼ from 14.2% in H1 2025

Intervals > $300/MWh · H1 2026

0.04%

▼ from 1.1% in H1 2025 — far fewer price spikes

Revenue potential per MW of capacity — monthly, YoY

Wholesale energy value of running flat-out for the month (time-weighted RRP × hours). This is the theoretical ceiling at 100% capacity factor — Wilmar's mills generate mainly during the June–November crushing season.

Implied full-run revenue ceiling by unit (A$m)

Registered capacity × per-MW revenue potential for Jan–Jun. Upper bound only; actual output for these non-scheduled units is not published in dispatch data.

Summary: QLD1 wholesale value fell ~37% YoY in H1 2026 — a flat-running bagasse unit would have earned ~$288k/MW versus ~$458k/MW a year earlier. At the same time, negative-price exposure roughly halved (7.9% vs 14.2% of intervals) and extreme price spikes largely disappeared. The evening peak (5–8 pm) still prices well above the midday solar trough, a structural feature that favours dispatchable biomass generators able to shape their export profile. June — the start of the crushing season — averaged $71/MWh in 2026 against $169/MWh in 2025, with the 2025 figure inflated by extreme spike days (11–12 Jun 2025 averaged $492 and $1,547/MWh).

Monthly QLD1 price statistics — Jan–Jun, 2026 vs 2025

Average monthly price (time-weighted RRP)

Click legend items to isolate a year.

Share of negative-price intervals

Bagasse cogen runs baseload during crushing, so negative-price hours directly erode revenue unless output is curtailed or self-consumed.

Detail table

Month	Avg $/MWh 2025	Avg $/MWh 2026	Δ YoY	% neg 2025	% neg 2026	Max $ 2025	Max $ 2026	Rev/MW 2025	Rev/MW 2026

Daily average QLD1 price — overlaid by year

Daily average RRP, Jan 1 – Jun 30

H1 2025 contained extreme days (22 Jan: $1,133 avg; 12 Jun: $1,547 avg) that drove much of its higher average. Capped view shows the underlying pattern; toggle for full scale.

Intraday price shape — why timing matters for bagasse cogen

Average price by hour of day (AEST), Jan–Jun

The midday solar trough deepened only slightly, but the evening peak collapsed YoY: 5–6 pm averaged $325/MWh in 2025 vs $103/MWh in 2026. A mill exporting flat earns near the daily average; shifting export to 4–9 pm captures the premium.

Midday trough (10:00–15:00) · 2026

$29.74

2025: $21.42 · slightly firmer

Evening peak (17:00–21:00) · 2026

$104.22

2025: $263.26 · ▼ 60%

Evening ÷ midday multiple · 2026

3.5×

2025: 12.3× · spread compressed

Wilmar's NEM generation fleet

Pioneer Sugar Mill PIONEER

Location: Brandon, QLD (Burdekin)
Region: QLD1
Capacity: 68 MW (largest bagasse unit in the NEM)
Fuel / tech: Bagasse · steam turbine cogeneration
Classification: Non-scheduled generator
Participant: Pioneer Sugar Mills Pty Ltd (Wilmar)
H1-26 rev ceiling: ≈ A$19.6m (100% CF) · H1-25: A$31.1m

Invicta Sugar Mill INVICTA

Location: Giru, QLD (Burdekin)
Region: QLD1
Capacity: 50.3 MW
Fuel / tech: Bagasse · steam turbine cogeneration
Classification: Non-scheduled generator
Participant: Stanwell Corporation (offtake); mill owned & operated by Wilmar
H1-26 rev ceiling: ≈ A$14.5m (100% CF) · H1-25: A$23.0m

Victoria Mill VICMILL1

Location: Ingham, QLD (Herbert)
Region: QLD1
Capacity: 24 MW
Fuel / tech: Bagasse · steam turbine cogeneration
Classification: Non-scheduled generator
Participant: Wilmar Sugar Pty Ltd (participant ID SUCROGEN)
H1-26 rev ceiling: ≈ A$6.9m (100% CF) · H1-25: A$11.0m

Data caveat: all three units are registered as non-scheduled, so AEMO's dispatch datasets (DISPATCHLOAD / unit solution) contain no unit-level MW for them — actual generation isn't publicly reported at 5-minute resolution. This report therefore values the QLD1 market environment their output sells into, and expresses unit economics as revenue potential per MW. Generation is concentrated in the June–November crushing season, so Jan–May figures represent largely idle months; June is the season ramp-up.

Renovara Market Insights · Published July 2026 · Author: Andrew Coffey.

Sources: market data © AEMO, sourced from NEMWEB (DISPATCHPRICE QLD1, intervention-free intervals; participant registration; NEM Registration & Exemption List) and used in accordance with AEMO's copyright permissions; processed via the Renovara NEM dataset. Unit metadata cross-checked against OpenElectricity. All times AEST; prices in nominal A$/MWh. Revenue potential = Σ(RRP)/12 per MW, i.e. the wholesale energy value of a constant 1 MW export — a theoretical ceiling, not actual revenue. Renovara is not affiliated with Wilmar Sugar, Stanwell Corporation, or AEMO; all fleet information is drawn from public registration data. This publication is general market commentary and does not constitute financial advice.

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